The 60-minute window · 09:30 to 10:30
The longer window waits for the whole first hour to complete before it commits. It gets a bigger, better-defined range to work from and, at a fixed multiple, a target that sits further away in points.
Last week's hour cell for a fourth day, in a box the half hour had already drawn
∅ neither target reached · the 41% branch- IB range296.00 pt · avg5 219.05 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 18% · ▼ 41% · ∅ 41% (n 410)
- Shorter horizons▼ 2h 29% · 4h 35%
- Target distance▼ 148.0 pt (×0.5)
The session dropped through most of its range in the opening bars, and nothing in the rest of the hour extended it: the 60-minute box measured 296 points, exactly the half hour's, and the two windows shared their rails. ⚖️ NORMAL on the box, against a five-day average of 219; expanded on the table's ruler.
The read was 18 / 41 / 41 from 410 sessions, the same cell the hour returned on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of last week, now for a fourth consecutive session. Magnet on the lower rail, target 148 points under the box low. Price made its low inside the window, recovered through the morning, and spent the afternoon in the upper half of the box. Neither target was reached by the 16:55 bar.
Four draws from the cell now read not reached, reached, not reached, not reached. The one that reached was the 166-point box; the three that did not were 252, 296 and 366 points. The cell has not changed. The distance to the rail has, every time.
A 53% short lean, a wick that stopped short, and an afternoon that went nowhere
∅ neither target reached · the 36% branch- IB range206.75 pt · avg5 256.4 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 11% · ▼ 53% · ∅ 36% (n 404)
- Shorter horizons▼ 2h 38% · 4h 47%
- Target distance▼ 103.4 pt (×0.5)
The hour pushed up first and then sold off, closing near its low with a 207-point range against a five-day average of 256. The table came back 11 up, 53 down, 36 neither: 53 of the 64 that resolve is 83% of the decided share, the strongest directional lean of the week, and the magnet printed on the lower rail with the target 103 points under the box.
The move continued for one bar. The wick just after 10:30 got to within roughly fifty points of the target and reversed, and the rest of the session ranged between the box low and its midpoint. Neither target was reached by the 16:55 bar.
An 83% decided share and a 36% neither share are two different statements about the same cell, and this session belonged to the second one. The lean was never marked against; it was simply not reached, which the table said would happen a little more than a third of the time.
The first Atlas-mode lean on the record marked against, on the last bar of the day
🧲❌ opposite side reached first · ~16:55 · the closing bar 🔴 Core PCE + Prelim GDP · 08:30 ET- IB range177.00 pt · avg5 257.4 · 💰 Accumulation
- Split▲ 13% · ▼ 49% · ∅ 38% (n 435)
- Shorter horizons▼ 2h 31% · 4h 41%
- Target distance▼ 88.5 pt (×0.5)
Core PCE and the GDP revision printed at 08:30 ET, an hour before the window opened. The hour that followed was 177 points, 💰 ACCUMULATION against a 257 average, and the table read 13 / 49 / 38 from 435 sessions. 49 of the 62 that resolve is 79% of the decided share; magnet on the lower rail, target 88.5 points under the box.
Price never went there. It chopped inside the box until about 13:00, then ground higher for the whole afternoon, and the 16:55 bar, the last of the session, spiked through the upper rail at 29,421.75. The bar before it had topped out at 29,396.75, twenty-five points short. The mark is a magnet-and-cross: the first Atlas-mode lean in the record to resolve against.
It is worth saying plainly what the scoring did here. The session close is the 16:55 bar, and that bar crossed the rail, so the window is scored as reached against the lean. Under a 16:00 close it would have been scored as neither. We publish the rule and the result together, and the rule does not move to suit the result.
The week's first long lean, and a rally that stopped twenty points short
∅ neither target reached · the 40% branch- IB range198.25 pt · avg5 219.55 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 49% · ▼ 11% · ∅ 40% (n 620)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 27% · 4h 40%
- Target distance▲ 99.1 pt (×0.5)
198 points, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers, and the first long read of the week: 49 up, 11 down, 40 neither, from the largest sample on the page at 620 sessions. 49 of the 60 that resolve is 82% of the decided share. Magnet on the upper rail, target 99 points above the box high.
The hour made its low early and its high late, and the afternoon kept lifting the range. The push into 16:00 got to within roughly twenty points of the target and faded; the session closed a few points above the box high. Neither target by the 16:55 bar.
Two things to carry forward. The 40% neither share was the second largest on the page, and it landed. And this cell, 49 / 11 / 40 from 620, comes back twice next week, which is where it gets its second and third draws under this lean test.
A long lean with the Fed chair speaking inside the window, and it paid in thirty minutes
🧲✅ favoured side reached first · ~11:00 🔴 Warsh at Jackson Hole + payrolls revision · 10:00 ET- IB range202.00 pt · avg5 226.05 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 44% · ▼ 20% · ∅ 36% (n 466)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 25% · 4h 35%
- Target distance▲ 101.0 pt (×0.5)
The Jackson Hole speech and the benchmark payrolls revision both landed at 10:00 ET, half way through the hour. The box that closed at 10:30 was 202 points, ⚖️ NORMAL, and it read 44 / 20 / 36 from 466 sessions: 44 of the 64 that resolve is 69% of the decided share, the narrowest margin of any lean this week, and enough. Magnet on the upper rail, target 101 points above the box.
Price sold off on the release, made the box low at about 10:15, and reversed. From the close of the window it ran up without a pause and took the target at about 11:00. Magnet and tick.
The half-hour window on the same morning had closed before the release, abstained, and was marked with a cross by the same move. That comparison is further down.
