The 60-minute window · 09:30 to 10:30
The longer window waits for the whole first hour to complete before it commits. It gets a bigger, better-defined range to work from and, at a fixed multiple, a target that sits further away in points.
The smallest 60-minute box on the record, and the only window all week that was paid
🧲✅ favoured side reached first · ~11:20 🔴 Labor Day · CME index futures closed 13:00 ET- IB range44.50 pt · avg5 158.6 · 💰 Accumulation
- Split▲ 18% · ▼ 41% · ∅ 41% (n 410)
- Shorter horizons▼ 2h 29% · 4h 35%
- Target distance▼ 22.3 pt (×0.5)
Labor Day. CME index futures closed at 13:00 ET, so the whole session was three and a half hours long, and the first hour of it covered 44.5 points against a five-day average of 158.6: 💰 ACCUMULATION on the box, compressed in the table. It is the smallest 60-minute box on the record by more than fifty points, and the half hour beneath it is smaller still at 43.25, the smallest initial balance of either duration.
The read was 18 / 41 / 41 from 410 sessions, and the table's own directional row printed 69%, past the 62% the Atlas mode asks for, so the magnet went on the lower rail with the target 22.3 points below the box. Price held near the top of the range until about eleven, then fell away and crossed at 11:20. Magnet and tick. The capture stops at the mark; the session itself ran on to the 12:55 bar.
This is the fifth draw of this cell on the record, after 19, 20, 21 and 24 August, and its second payment. It is also the second nearest rail the record has produced, after the 21.6 points on the half hour beneath it, and the obvious question, whether a rail that close is an easier thing to reach than a rail a hundred points out, is not one that a single holiday morning can answer. The percentages are a historical null, not a prediction, and they are not adjusted for the fact that this box was a quarter the usual size.
The widest box of the week, an abstain at 24 against 35, and nothing came near either rail
∅ neither target reached · the 41% branch- IB range262.25 pt · avg5 134.9 · 🚀 Expansion
- Split▲ 24% · ▼ 35% · ∅ 41% (n 347)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 6% · 4h 15% · ▼ 2h 18% · 4h 29%
- Target distance▼ 131.1 pt (×0.5)
262 points in the first hour against a 134.9 average, 🚀 EXPANSION on the box and expanded in the table, nearly six times Monday's range. The read was 24 / 35 / 41 from 347 sessions, the cell Monday 17 August and Friday 4 September both returned, and the table's directional row printed 59%, three short of 62. Both rails stayed grey.
A 262-point box at ×0.5 puts the rails 131 points out on each side, at 29,817.88 and 29,293.38. Price spent the rest of the session inside a band 156 points wide, 29,645 down to 29,489.5, and closed in the lower part of it. The nearer of the two rails was still 173 points away when the 16:55 bar printed, the widest margin of the week.
Third draw of the cell: reached on 17 August, reached on 4 September, neither today. All three abstained, and on all three ∅ was the largest of the three shares, which is the branch that landed here.
One point short of a lean, and the rail price got near was the other one
∅ neither target reached · the 34% branch- IB range177.00 pt · avg5 159.55 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 40% · ▼ 26% · ∅ 34% (n 373)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 17% · 4h 32% · ▼ 2h 10% · 4h 20%
- Target distance▲ 88.5 pt (×0.5)
177 points against a 159.55 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers, and the first appearance of 40 / 26 / 34 from 373 sessions anywhere on the record. The table's directional row read 61%. The Atlas mode asks for 62, so this window abstained by one point and both rails printed grey.
Price broke down out of the box before noon, made 29,358.25 at 11:20, and spent the afternoon chopping between about 29,385 and 29,485. The high after the box, 29,563.25, finished 119 points under the upper rail at 29,682.50. The low was 29.75 points above the lower rail at 29,328.50, the closest approach of the day, and it was on the side the table had put 26% on.
An abstained window is graded on the larger of its two shares, which here was the upside, and the upside was never in the picture. Nothing was offered on this morning and nothing is claimed for it. A single point on a rounded percentage decided whether this window carried a magnet, which is worth knowing about the threshold rather than about the day.
PPI at half past eight, the hour leaned long, and the high fell ninety points short
∅ neither target reached · the 36% branch 🔴 Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m · 08:30 ET- IB range205.25 pt · avg5 159.6 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 44% · ▼ 20% · ∅ 36% (n 466)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 25% · 4h 35%
- Target distance▲ 102.6 pt (×0.5)
Core PPI and PPI printed at 08:30 ET, an hour before the window opened. The hour that followed was 205 points, ⚖️ NORMAL against a 159.6 average and expanded in the table, and read 44 / 20 / 36 from 466 sessions with a directional row of 69%. Magnet on the upper rail, target 102.6 points above the box. The release is where it is in the timeline and nothing here is attributed to it.
The high for the rest of the session came on the 10:35 bar, minutes after the window closed, at 29,275.25, only 12.25 points above the box high and ninety points under the rail at 29,365.63. Nothing traded higher for the rest of the day, but it was not a one-way slide either. Price fell to 29,133.5 by 12:35, then put 133.5 points back on in twenty-five minutes to reach 29,267 at 13:00, within 8.25 points of the morning's high and still 98.6 short of the rail. From there it fell away to 29,123 at 15:50, 168 points above the lower rail, and closed at 29,142.25. The whole post-box range was 152.25 points, and neither target by the 16:55 bar.
This is the one morning of the five on which the two durations favoured opposite rails. The half hour closed its box 59.25 points lower at the top, from the same low, read a different cell and leaned short. Same session, same low, opposite magnets; the half hour is further down.
CPI day, the second hour added nothing, and the rally stopped 39 points short
∅ neither target reached · the 38% branch 🔴 CPI m/m, CPI y/y, Core CPI · 08:30 ET- IB range127.75 pt · avg5 165.45 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 47% · ▼ 15% · ∅ 38% (n 581)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 25% · 4h 36%
- Target distance▲ 63.9 pt (×0.5)
CPI printed at 08:30 ET, an hour before the window opened; the pre-market bars to the left of the box are that hour. The hour itself was 127.75 points, ⚖️ NORMAL against a 165.45 average and compressed in the table, and the first half hour had already set both extremes: the 09:30 to 09:55 range was the 09:30 to 10:25 range. The two windows therefore share this box, these rails and this target exactly.
The hour read 47 / 15 / 38 from 581 sessions, directional row 76%; magnet on the upper rail, target 63.9 points above the box. Price fell out of the box first, to 29,334 by 10:45, then turned and rallied to 29,499.5 at 11:30, 39 points short of the rail at 29,538.88. It drifted lower for the rest of the afternoon and closed at 29,392.75. Neither target by the 16:55 bar.
Second draw of 47 / 15 / 38: paid on 3 September, not reached today. Those 39 points are the closest any window came to its favoured rail this week without reaching it, level with the half hour, which is the same number because it is the same rail.
