The 60-minute window · 09:30 to 10:30
The longer window waits for the whole first hour to complete before it commits. It gets a bigger, better-defined range to work from and, at a fixed multiple, a target that sits further away in points.
An abstain by one point, and the upper rail went anyway
✅ larger share reached first · 11:40 · abstained window- IB range208.00 pt · avg5 163.35 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 40% · ▼ 26% · ∅ 34% (n 373)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 17% · 4h 32% · ▼ 2h 10% · 4h 20%
- Target distance▲ 104.0 pt (×0.5)
The first hour covered 208 points against a five-day average of 163.35, ⚖️ NORMAL on the box and expanded in the table. The low, 28,880.50, was the 09:30 bar itself and the high, 29,088.50, came at 10:10. The read was 40 / 26 / 34 from 373 sessions and the table's directional row printed 61%, one point under the 62% the Atlas mode asks for, so no magnet was placed and both rails printed grey.
Price fell to 28,955.75 by 10:40, turned, and rallied for the rest of the morning. The upper rail at 29,192.50 went on the 11:40 bar, which ran to 29,208.50. No lean had been offered, so the mark is a plain green tick recording that the larger of the two grey shares got there first. The move kept going to 29,305.75 at 13:55, 113.25 points beyond the rail.
Second draw of 40 / 26 / 34 on the record, after 9 September, and both abstained on the same 61%. That one ended inside both rails and this one cleared the upper. A threshold has to sit somewhere, and two draws either side of it say nothing about where.
A short lean from a box the second half hour pushed lower, paid twenty minutes later
🧲✅ favoured side reached first · 10:50- IB range150.50 pt · avg5 196.05 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 13% · ▼ 49% · ∅ 38% (n 435)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 5% · 4h 9% · ▼ 2h 31% · 4h 41%
- Target distance▼ 75.3 pt (×0.5)
150.5 points against a 196.05 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers. The high, 29,452.75, was set at 09:45 and was the highest price of the whole session. The low, 29,302.25, was set at 10:20, on the penultimate bar of the window, by the same fall that had just taken the half hour through its lower rail, against its long lean.
The read was 13 / 49 / 38 from 435 sessions, directional row 79%, the strongest of the five hours: magnet on the lower rail, target 75.3 points below the box. The window closed at 10:30 and the rail at 29,226.95 went on the 10:50 bar. Magnet and tick. The upper rail at 29,528.05 was never within 190 points of the day after the box closed.
Third draw of this cell on the record and its first payment: crossed against on 26 August, unreached on 31 August, paid today. The 13% on the upper side is a measured share of 435 comparable windows, not a claim about this one.
The narrowest hour of the week, a long lean, and a quarter to twelve
🧲✅ favoured side reached first · 11:45 🔴 FOMC statement and projections 14:00 ET · press conference 14:30 ET- IB range109.75 pt · avg5 173.70 · 💰 Accumulation
- Split▲ 44% · ▼ 20% · ∅ 36% (n 466)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 25% · 4h 35% · ▼ 2h 9% · 4h 15%
- Target distance▲ 54.9 pt (×0.5)
109.75 points against a 173.7 average, 💰 ACCUMULATION on the box and compressed in the table, the narrowest first hour of the week. Low 29,373.00 at 09:35, high 29,482.75 on the 10:00 bar, the first one after the half hour had closed. The read was 44 / 20 / 36 from 466 sessions, directional row 69%, magnet on the upper rail, target 54.9 points above the box.
The 11:05 bar reached 29,536.25, which cleared the half hour's rail by less than half a point and stopped 1.4 points under the hour's at 29,537.65. Price then backed off for half an hour before the 11:45 bar ran to 29,552.50 and settled it. Magnet and tick, forty minutes after the same move had already marked the shorter window.
The afternoon went the other way and kept going: 29,052.75 by 15:25, which took price through the unfavoured lower rail at 29,318.10 on the 14:35 bar, long after this window had been graded on the upper. Only the first rail counts, so that is context and not a result. The FOMC statement was at 14:00 and the press conference at 14:30; both this window and the half hour had resolved by 11:45, more than two hours earlier, and nothing on this morning is attributed to the release.
The only window of the eight leans that reached nothing, and it finished 15.8 points away
∅ neither target reached · the 36% branch- IB range135.50 pt · avg5 160.25 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 44% · ▼ 20% · ∅ 36% (n 466)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 25% · 4h 35% · ▼ 2h 9% · 4h 15%
- Target distance▲ 67.8 pt (×0.5)
135.5 points against a 160.25 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on the box and compressed in the table, and the same cell as Wednesday: 44 / 20 / 36 from 466 sessions, directional row 69%, magnet on the upper rail. The box low, 29,605.75 at 09:35, was the session low as well, and the box high came on the 10:25 bar, so the window closed at its own extreme.
Target 67.8 points above the box put the rail at 29,809.05. Price dropped to 29,652.00 by 11:05, held between 29,652.00 and 29,767.00 until three o'clock, and then made the session high of 29,793.25 on the 15:50 bar, 15.8 points short. It fell back at once and the 16:55 bar closed near 29,720. The lower rail at 29,537.95 was never approached: the closest the whole session came to it was 67.8 points, at the box low itself.
Fourth draw of this cell: paid on 28 August, unreached on 10 September, paid on Wednesday, unreached today. Two of the four have now ended inside both rails, which is what a 36% ∅ share describes. The half hour sat 10.5 points from its own upper rail on the same bar, and Thursday is the only session of the five where neither duration resolved.
A short lean, forty points from being paid at lunchtime, crossed the other way at 15:55
🧲❌ crossed against the lean · 15:55- IB range151.25 pt · avg5 146.30 · ⚖️ Normal
- Split▲ 18% · ▼ 41% · ∅ 41% (n 410)
- Shorter horizons▲ 2h 5% · 4h 13% · ▼ 2h 29% · 4h 35%
- Target distance▼ 75.6 pt (×0.5)
151.25 points against a 146.3 average, ⚖️ NORMAL on both rulers. The high, 29,845.25, came at 09:40 and the low, 29,694.00, at 10:15, the second of those set by the fall that had already paid the half hour. The read was 18 / 41 / 41 from 410 sessions, directional row 69%, magnet on the lower rail, target 75.6 points below the box at 29,618.40.
It got close. The session low of 29,659.25 at 12:25 finished 40.85 points above the rail. From there price climbed for the rest of the afternoon, and the 15:55 bar ran to 29,938.00 and through the upper rail at 29,920.85. Magnet and cross. The high of the day, 29,993.50, came at 16:10, six and a half points under thirty thousand.
This is the sixth draw of 18 / 41 / 41 and the first one marked against it: two paid and three unreached before today. It is also one of only four windows on the whole record to cross against an Atlas lean, and two of those four are on this page.
