Four from five on both axes, and the first gold week where levels went less often than stated

The week at a glance

Every number in this table is transcribed from the close capture of that morning. Nothing is inferred and nothing is computed after the fact.

Four-way reads high only / low only / both / inside and always sums to 100. The ~ on Monday's cell is the indicator's era flag: the cell's shares spread more than ten points across market eras, so they are quoted as approximate. High and Low carry the marginal probability that side is taken at all, which is that side's exclusive share plus the both-sides share, not the number printed on the level itself. These captures are 5-minute charts, so an outcome time is the bar in which the level was crossed and is good to the bar; on Wednesday and Thursday the high went on the 08:00 opening bar itself, so the tick is already on the open capture. Two red folder USD releases fell inside the session: ISM manufacturing at 10:00 on Tuesday, after the level had gone, and non-farm payrolls at 08:30 on Friday, on the bar that took the low. Both are marked against the day.

Morning by morning

Open capture on the left, close capture on the right. Click any chart to enlarge.

Monday 31 August

The era-flagged cell for a third time, and its third different answer

First sweep ✗ · modal branch ✗ · low only, rated ~22%

~55 / ~22 / ~10 / ~13, first sweep 72 / 28, out of 640 sessions, the cell carrying the tilde, for the third time in four weeks. The tilde means the cell's shares spread more than ten points across market eras, so the indicator quotes them as approximate. Wednesday 12 August took both sides on it. Monday 24 August took the high only. This morning took the low only: three draws, three of the four branches.

The high was six points above the open after a night of steady climbing, and the opening bar reached 4511.9, three points short of it. From there the session fell, crossed EQ by 08:45, took the low on the 09:45 bar, bottomed near 4468 and recovered to 4483 by the close.

Per side, one from two, the wrong one: the low at 32% went and the high at 65% did not. A 72% first-sweep call on a level six points away is close to the strongest geometric case the tables make, and it missed. The morning is the week's only miss on any axis, and it is the double miss.

• Eurasia range36.2 pt, below average
• Prior sweepInside
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way~55 / ~22 / ~10 / ~13
• First sweep▲ 72% · ▼ 28%
• P(high taken)65% → not taken
• P(low taken)32% → taken ~09:45
• Samplen 640, High

Tuesday 1 September

An 82-point Eurasia, the widest of the gold record, a 97% call on the low, and the low went at 08:30

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · low only, as rated🔴 ISM Manufacturing PMI · 10:00 ET

The widest Eurasia range the gold record has produced, 82.1 points, after a night in which gold fell about sixty points and swept its own low. The width put the high seventy-four points above the open at 2% and the low eight points below at 65%, with 97% on the low going first and 32% on the session staying inside.

The low went on the 08:30 bar. Price then fell to about 4374 by 09:00, forty points below the level, and climbed back to 4420 by 10:15. The ISM manufacturing print at 10:00 landed after the level had gone and during the recovery, and is marked on the day for the record.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the low at 66% went and the high at 3% did not. This is the mirror of Friday 21 August, when a 76.8 point Eurasia put 26% on inside and the high went five minutes before the close. Here the inside share was higher still and the level went thirty minutes in. Two wide-range mornings, two inside shares of 26 and 32%, neither landed.

• Eurasia range82.1 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way2 / 65 / 1 / 32
• First sweep▲ 3% · ▼ 97%
• P(high taken)3% → not taken
• P(low taken)66% → taken ~08:30
• Samplen 701, High

Wednesday 2 September

The high taken on the 08:00 bar itself, and a sixty-point run away from it

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · high only, as rated

Gold had climbed thirty points into the open from a 06:00 low, and the opening bar crossed the Eurasia high before the 08:00 capture was taken, so the tick is already on the open snip. The table had the high at 58% and 88% on it going first, on a Eurasia of 31.3 points that stayed inside its predecessor.

The session then ran about sixty points, to 4444 by 10:00, and eased back to 4419 at the close. The low at 4349.2 was never within twenty-five points of price after the first bar.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the high at 89% went and the low at 39% did not. Both sides carried 31% here, the largest both-sides share the gold record has yet shown, and the session was seventy points above the low for most of the morning. The sample bin reads Medium at 476 sessions, the first time a gold morning on these pages has drawn a cell below the High bin.

• Eurasia range31.3 pt, below average
• Prior sweepInside
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way58 / 8 / 31 / 3
• First sweep▲ 88% · ▼ 12%
• P(high taken)89% → taken 08:00
• P(low taken)39% → not taken
• Samplen 476, Medium

Thursday 3 September

Wednesday's cell again, the high on the 08:00 bar again, and a seventy-point run behind it

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · high only, as rated

58 / 8 / 31 / 3, first sweep 88 / 12, out of 476 sessions: the same cell as Wednesday, drawn on consecutive mornings, and it resolved the same way. Eurasia had printed 30 points and swept its own high, and the opening bar was already through the level when the 08:00 capture was taken, so the tick is on the open snip again.

The session ran fifty points to 4544 by 08:45, gave back forty of them to 4505 near 09:45, and climbed again to 4558 at the close, the largest US AM range of the week. The low at 4462.8 was twenty points below the open and was never approached.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the high at 89% went and the low at 39% did not. Two consecutive draws of a cell with 31% on both sides, two high-only mornings. The forecast for the 3rd was the same lookup as the forecast for the 2nd and neither used anything from its own morning to produce it.

• Eurasia range30.0 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way58 / 8 / 31 / 3
• First sweep▲ 88% · ▼ 12%
• P(high taken)89% → taken 08:00
• P(low taken)39% → not taken
• Samplen 476, Medium

Friday 4 September

An 84% call on the low, and the payrolls bar took it with an eighty-point candle

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · low only, as rated🔴 Non-farm payrolls · 08:30 ET

Non-farm payrolls at 08:30 ET, thirty minutes into the session, on a table that had the low nine points below the open at 59% with 84% on it going first. The release bar fell from about 4520 to 4440, eighty points in five minutes, through the level and far past it. Price reached about 4411 by 08:45 and recovered to 4487 by the close.

The high at 4537.9 was twenty-three points above the open and never approached; after 08:30 the session was never within forty points of it. Both sides carried 27%, which did not land, and inside carried 2%.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the low at 86% went and the high at 39% did not. The table is a lookup on the prior session's geometry and knows nothing about the calendar; on this morning the calendar moved price through the rated side, which is the same direction it was already leaning. The morning scores on all three axes and the release is marked against the day.

• Eurasia range31.8 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept both
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way12 / 59 / 27 / 2
• First sweep▲ 16% · ▼ 84%
• P(high taken)39% → not taken
• P(low taken)86% → taken ~08:30
• Samplen 531, Medium

What the week actually showed

• Four from five on both axes, the best modal week gold had produced at the time, and the one miss was the double miss. Monday's 72% call on a high six points away went the other way and the low only branch at ~22% landed instead. Tuesday to Friday every first sweep and every modal branch landed. Over four gold weeks the record stands at fourteen of twenty first sweeps and eleven of twenty modal branches.
• Levels went less often than stated, for the first time on gold. Five of ten against a mean stated 55%, after three weeks in which levels went more often than the tables said. Over four weeks that is twenty-five of forty against a mean stated 51%, a realised 62%. The gap narrowed this week rather than widening, which is what a calibrated table looks like over enough draws and what a small sample looks like over too few.
• The era-flagged cell has now been drawn three times and resolved three different ways. ~55 / ~22 / ~10 / ~13 on n 640: both sides on Wednesday 12 August, high only on Monday 24 August, low only on Monday 31 August. Three draws of a cell whose modal share is quoted as approximately 55% have landed the modal once, which on three draws is not evidence of anything, and is precisely the kind of cell the tilde exists to warn about.
• Both sides did not land, on the two largest both-sides shares the gold record has shown. Wednesday and Thursday drew the same cell, 58 / 8 / 31 / 3, on consecutive mornings, and both took the high on the opening bar and ran away from it. Across twenty gold sessions the both-sides branch has landed five times against a mean rating of about 14%, never once as the modal branch. It remains the number this record exists to watch.
• Nothing stayed inside, and Tuesday's 32% was the second-highest inside share of the record. An 82.1 point Eurasia, the widest gold has produced on these pages, put the low eight points below the open and the session took it at ~08:30. Across twenty gold sessions the inside branch has averaged roughly 13% and landed zero times. The two highest inside ratings it has carried, 33% on Friday 28 August and 32% here, both saw a level go, one at ~09:55 and one at ~08:30.