Five modal branches from five and five first sweeps from five, a first for the gold record, and still only half the levels went

The week at a glance

Every number in this table is transcribed from the close capture of that morning. Nothing is inferred and nothing is computed after the fact.

Four-way reads high only / low only / both / inside and always sums to 100. These are the historical frequencies the indicator carries for that cell, not forecasts for the morning in front of it. High and Low carry the marginal probability that side is taken at all, which is that side's exclusive share plus the both-sides share, not the number printed on the level itself. These captures are 5-minute charts, so an outcome time is the bar in which the level was crossed and is good to the bar. Tuesday's figures carry the study's era flag and the table prints them with a tilde, so they are approximate and are not presented here as exact; the derived marginals inherit that. On Thursday the high went on the 08:00 opening bar itself, so its ticks are already on the open capture rather than appearing between the two frames. The week's one red folder USD release, the FOMC decision and press conference at 14:00 and 14:30 on Wednesday, fell after every window scored here, so no day on this page is marked for news.

Morning by morning

Open capture on the left, close capture on the right. Click any chart to enlarge.

Monday 14 September

Fifteen minutes the other way, then the low on the 08:35 bar and twenty-four points through it

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · low only, as rated

7 / 73 / 4 / 16, first sweep 9 / 91, out of 660 sessions. The Eurasia range was 61.7 points, the fifth widest of the thirty gold sessions on these pages, and it had swept its own low. Price opened at 4327.0 below Eurasia EQ, the low 9.4 points beneath it and the high 52.3 points above.

The first fifteen minutes went the other way. The session high of 4338.4 came on the 08:15 bar, 11.4 points above the open and still 40.9 points short of 4379.3. Price then rolled over, the 08:35 bar crossed 4317.6, and the session bottomed at 4293.2 on the 09:05 bar, 24.4 points through against a median down-penetration of 23.0. The rest of the morning held a band roughly between 4299 and 4328 and closed at 4324.4.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the low at 77% went and the high at 11% did not. These four shares are the cell the record last drew on 10 September, which also produced low only, so the 73% branch is two from two on it. Two draws say nothing about a 73% frequency. It is recorded because the cell repeating is a fact of the record and a reader can check it against the earlier week.

• Eurasia range61.7 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQBelow EQ
• Four-way7 / 73 / 4 / 16
• First sweep▲ 9% · ▼ 91%
• P(high taken)11% → not taken
• P(low taken)77% → taken 08:35
• Samplen 660, High

Tuesday 15 September

The high taken at 10:05 by six tenths of a point, and the low never came within nine

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · high only, as rated

~55 / ~22 / ~10 / ~13, first sweep 72 / 28, out of 640 sessions. The tildes are the indicator's own. This cell carries the study's era flag, so the table prints its four shares as approximate and this page does not present them as exact figures. The Eurasia range was 38.9 points, below average, and had swept its own low; price opened at 4324.2, just above Eurasia EQ, with the high 16.1 points above and the low 22.8 below.

The session low came early, 4310.9 on the 08:20 bar, and finished 9.5 points above 4301.4. From there price climbed for most of the morning and the 10:05 bar crossed 4340.3, topping at 4340.9. That is 0.6 of a point through the level against a median up-penetration of 23.3, about a fortieth of a normal reach. Price faded through the last eighty minutes and closed at 4324.0, two tenths of a point from where it opened.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the high at about 65% went and the low at about 32% did not. The tick records that the level was crossed and says nothing about how far. Had the Eurasia high sat one point higher, this morning would have scored as an inside session and the modal branch would have missed. That is a property of a binary test rather than a fault in it, and it is why the penetration is printed next to every tick on this page. The same four shares have now been drawn four times and produced both sides, high only, low only and high only.

• Eurasia range38.9 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way~55 / ~22 / ~10 / ~13
• First sweep▲ 72% · ▼ 28%
• P(high taken)~65% → taken 10:05
• P(low taken)~32% → not taken
• Samplen 640, High

Wednesday 16 September

The high at 09:10, then a reversal that stopped 3.3 points short of taking the low as well

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · high only, as rated

45 / 24 / 27 / 4, first sweep 65 / 35, out of 729 sessions. Eurasia printed 33.1 points, below average, and had swept its own high. Price opened at 4382.9 above Eurasia EQ with the high 11.9 points above and the low 21.2 below.

An early dip to 4375.2 on the 08:30 bar, then a climb: the 09:10 bar crossed 4394.8 and the session topped at 4401.8 on the 09:15 bar, 7.0 points through against a median up-penetration of 22.7. What followed is the part worth reading. Price fell for fifty minutes to 4365.0 on the 10:05 bar, 3.3 points above the Eurasia low, turned again and ran back to 4400.2 by 11:05, closing at 4386.1.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the high at 72% went and the low at 51% did not, and that 51% was the closest thing to a coin toss the week offered. It came within 3.3 points of going, and had it gone the morning would have been a both-sides session and the modal branch would have scored as a miss, because the branch named here is high only, an exclusive branch. These four shares are the joint most repeated in the record, drawn four times, level with Tuesday's cell on this same page, and this is the first time the 45% high-only branch they name has actually landed: the previous three gave both sides twice and low only once. The week's only red folder release, the FOMC decision, came at 14:00, two and a half hours after this window closed.

• Eurasia range33.1 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way45 / 24 / 27 / 4
• First sweep▲ 65% · ▼ 35%
• P(high taken)72% → taken 09:10
• P(low taken)51% → not taken
• Samplen 729, High

Thursday 17 September

The high went on the 08:00 bar itself, and the session carried twenty-nine points past it

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · high only, as rated

76 / 7 / 5 / 12, first sweep 92 / 8, out of 634 sessions. The Eurasia range was 68.8 points, the third widest of the thirty gold sessions on these pages, and it had swept its own high. Price opened at 4389.9 with the Eurasia high 3.5 points above it and the Eurasia low 65.3 points below.

The 07:55 bar, the last one before the open, had already traded at 4393.4, the level itself. The 08:00 bar took it, which is why the taken tick and both the 76% and 92% ticks are already on the open capture. That is the shortest version of a correct call the tables can produce and it should be read as such: a level three and a half points from the open going on the first bar is close to the least surprising thing this study can record. The session then ran to 4422.3 on the 08:25 bar, 28.9 points through against a median up-penetration of 23.6, drifted for three hours and closed at 4399.1.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the high at 81% went and the low at 12% did not. The session low was the low of that same opening bar, 4383.8, and it left 4324.6 59.2 points out of reach. This is the fourth time in thirty gold sessions that the high has gone on the 08:00 bar and the seventh time either level has, so it is a recurring shape rather than an oddity, and 92% on the high going first is the table saying exactly that.

• Eurasia range68.8 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way76 / 7 / 5 / 12
• First sweep▲ 92% · ▼ 8%
• P(high taken)81% → taken 08:00
• P(low taken)12% → not taken
• Samplen 634, High

Friday 18 September

The session high was the opening bar, the low went at 08:20, and price never traded above the open again

First sweep ✓ · modal branch ✓ · low only, as rated

29 / 45 / 14 / 12, first sweep 38 / 62, out of 649 sessions. Eurasia printed 39.9 points, below average, and had swept its own high. Price opened at 4420.9, which the table read as above Eurasia EQ by 0.95 of a point, with the high 19.0 points above and the low 20.9 below. No other open this week sat that close to the midpoint, and the Above EQ classification on the morning turned on less than a point.

The session high was the first bar: 4422.2 at 08:00, 17.7 points short of 4439.9, and price never traded there again. The 08:20 bar fell from 4410.1 to 4395.1 and crossed 4400.0 inside itself. The morning then stepped lower in stages to a session low of 4381.0 on the 10:30 bar, 19.0 points through the level against a median down-penetration of 22.5, and closed at 4394.5.

Both marginals resolved as stated: the low at 59% went and the high at 43% did not. These four shares have now been drawn three times, on 26 August, 8 September and today, and produced low only every time. A 45% branch landing three times from three happens about one series in eleven, so it is a coincidence worth recording and nothing more than that.

• Eurasia range39.9 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs Eurasia EQAbove EQ
• Four-way29 / 45 / 14 / 12
• First sweep▲ 38% · ▼ 62%
• P(high taken)43% → not taken
• P(low taken)59% → taken 08:20
• Samplen 649, High

What the week actually showed

• Five from five on the modal branch and five from five on the first sweep, and the gold record has not done that before. The best previous first-sweep week was 4 of 5, reached four times, and the best previous modal week was 4 of 5, reached once, on w/c 31 August. Over six weeks the record now reads 23 of 30 first sweeps and 18 of 30 modal branches. Five sessions is five sessions. A perfect week is what a run of five draws from a favourite that wins six or seven times in ten looks like when it goes the easy way, and the honest way to read it is alongside the weeks on this hub that did not.
• Every session took exactly one side, and the two facts are not independent. Three mornings took the high, two took the low, none took both and none stayed inside. The modal branch is simply the highest of the four shares, and in all thirty draws so far it has landed on one of the two exclusive branches, never on both and never on inside. On this record, then, a both-sides morning scores the called side as a miss even when that side goes, and a week with no both-sides session and no inside session is the shape a perfect modal week needs. That is a fact about which cells have been drawn, not a property of the score. It is the second such week of the six: w/c 31 August was the mirror image, three low only and two high only, and it scored 4 of 5 on the modal branch because one of its days was called the other way.
• The stated marginals separated cleanly, for the first time in the record. The five levels that were taken carried 59, ~65, 72, 77 and 81 percent. The five that were not carried 11, 12, ~32, 43 and 51 percent. The two tildes are Tuesday's, whose cell carries the era flag. Every level above 58% went and every level at 51% or below did not, with no overlap, which has not happened in the five earlier weeks. It is also ten events. A clean split of ten events is not a rare thing for a roughly calibrated set of numbers to produce, and it is not evidence of calibration. It is recorded because it is checkable.
• Two of the five crossings were nothing like a normal reach, and the tick cannot tell you that. Tuesday's high was crossed by 0.6 of a point against a median up-penetration of 23.3, and Wednesday's by 7.0 against 22.7. The other three were ordinary: Monday 24.4 down against 23.0, Thursday 28.9 up against 23.6, Friday 19.0 down against 22.5. Had Tuesday's Eurasia high sat one point higher the morning would have scored as inside and the modal branch would have missed. The taken tick is binary by design; the penetration next to it is the part that says how much the level actually mattered.
• Wednesday came within 3.3 points of breaking the week's clean sweep. The session took the high at 09:10, reversed for fifty minutes to 4365.0 and stopped 3.3 points above the Eurasia low. Across thirty gold sessions the both-sides branch has landed seven times against a mean rating of about 20%, and it has never once been the modal branch: in thirty draws the tables have named high only seventeen times and low only thirteen, and have never named both or inside. That is a structural feature of the record worth watching rather than a result, and it is why, on this record, a both-sides or inside morning can only ever score as a modal miss.
• Levels went five of ten against a mean stated 50%, the joint lowest taken count of the six weeks. The same 5 of 10 came in on w/c 31 August. Over thirty sessions the record is 36 of 60 against a mean stated 51%, a realised 60%. So the week that scored perfectly on both branch calls is also the week that saw the fewest levels go, which is not a contradiction: the branch calls are about which shape the morning takes, and every morning this week was one-sided. Four of the five untaken levels were rated 43% or below, at 11, 12, ~32 and 43 percent, and duly stayed put; only Wednesday's, at 51%, was anywhere near a coin toss.