NY AM, week commencing Monday 14 September 2026

At a glance

Three scores, because the indicator makes three separable claims, and this week they separated.

The four share columns are the indicator's own figures, read off the status table at the session open, and they sum to 100 on every row. Gold marks the branch the tables rated highest. The London column is a whole number because the study rounds it, half up. The exact ranges are 218.50, 196.25, 93.50, 172.25 and 143.50 points, so the two opening distances quoted in each session below sum to the exact range and will sit up to half a point away from the figure in this column: Monday's 62.00 above and 156.50 below make 218.50, shown here as 219. London printed above its own average range on Monday and Tuesday and below it on the other three days. No red folder USD release fell inside the 07:30 to 11:30 window on any of the five days. The week's only one was the FOMC decision at 14:00 ET on Wednesday with the press conference at 14:30, two and a half hours after Wednesday's window had closed. Times are the 5-minute bar in which the level was crossed, and every time on this page is read off the 5-minute bar data rather than off the pictures.

Five from five on the narrowest of the three claims

The first sweep call was correct on all five sessions. That has happened once before, in the week of 31 August, and across the thirty-five published sessions the call now stands at twenty-six from thirty-five. Four things are worth saying before anyone reads a skill estimate into it.

The first sweep is the smallest claim the indicator makes. It names which of the two London levels trades through first, conditional on one of them being taken at all. It says nothing about whether the other side follows, which is what the four-way branch scores, and nothing about how far price goes, which is what the penetration medians describe. A week can be five from five on it and still be six from ten on levels taken, and this is that week.

Monday's call was worth ten and a half points. The table said 53% to the high, the thinnest call of the five. Price then fell 146.00 points from the open to 28826.00 on the 09:05 bar, which is 10.50 points above the London low, turned there, and took the high at 09:45 instead. Had that bar traded ten and a half points lower, the first sweep would read low, the branch would read low only or both sides rather than high only, and two of the week's three scores would be different. The call was right. It was not comfortable, and the page would be dishonest to print the tick without the distance.

The one below-EQ open called the low, and got it. Monday to Thursday all opened above London EQ and all called the high; Friday opened below EQ, 6.50 points above the London low, called the low at 85% and had it inside four bars. Friday's open and Friday's call are not independent observations: where the open sits relative to EQ is part of the context the lookup reads before it prints anything. It is not a rule either. Monday's own bin, 37 / 35 / 18 / 10 from 215 sessions, has been served to three above-EQ opens and two below-EQ ones, and it called the high on all five. What the week adds is five observations of the outcome agreeing with the call, which is five observations.

Five is five. If each of the five calls landed at exactly the rate the table printed beside it, 53, 88, 58, 74 and 85, then all five landing in the same week has a probability of about 17%, or one week in six. That multiplication also treats the five mornings as independent, which five consecutive sessions on one instrument are not, and dependence between them raises the chance of a clean sweep, so 17% is a floor rather than an estimate. It has now happened twice in seven. A clean week is what a well calibrated table is supposed to produce sometimes, and it is not evidence of anything on its own. The number to watch is the running one: twenty-six from thirty-five, at a mean stated 72% this week, on a record still far too short to separate a good call from a lucky one.

The five NY AM sessions

Left, the session opening at 07:30. Right, the same chart at 11:30 with the outcome latched.

Monday 14 September

A 146-point fall that stopped 10.50 points short of the low, then the high at 09:45

First sweep ✓ · high only, the 37% favourite ✓

The fifth draw of 37 / 35 / 18 / 10 from 215 sessions, the only Medium bin of the week against 479 to 840 on the other four days. London had run 219 points, above its own average, and price opened at 28972.00, 62.00 points under the London high and 156.50 above the London low, above EQ. First sweep 53% to the high, the thinnest call of the week.

Price went the other way first. The session fell 146.00 points from the open to 28826.00 on the 09:05 bar, which is 10.50 points above the London low, and turned there without latching it. The London high was crossed at 09:45 and the session ran on to 29089.00 on the 11:25 bar, the last bar of the window, 55.00 points through the level against a median up penetration of 74. The close at 29078.75 was outside the London range.

First sweep correct at 53% and the modal branch landed, high only at 37%, with the 55% high taken and the 53% low not. It is worth being plain about how close that was: ten and a half points lower and the low goes first, the branch is low only or both sides, and both scores read differently. That is what a 53% call looks like when it scores.

• London range219 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs London EQAbove EQ
• Four-way37 / 35 / 18 / 10
• First sweep▲ 53% · ▼ 47%
• P(high taken)55% → taken 09:45
• P(low taken)53% → not taken, by 10.50 pt
• Session high29089.00, 55.00 pt through
• Session low28826.00, 10.50 pt short
• Samplen 215, Medium

Tuesday 15 September

The high in the seventh bar, then 268.50 points down to the low at 10:50

First sweep ✓ · both sides, the 38% branch

The third draw of 52 / 8 / 38 / 2 from 766 sessions. Price opened at 29405.25, 22.25 points under the London high and 174.00 above the low, with 88% on the high going first, the strongest first-sweep call of the week and one of the strongest the tables produce.

The high went at 08:00, in the seventh bar, and the session topped at 29484.25 on the 08:55 bar, 56.75 points through against a median of 77. From there price fell 268.50 points over the next two hours, latching the London low at 10:50 and bottoming at 29215.75 on the same bar, 15.50 points through against a median down penetration of 83. The last half hour recovered to 29297.75 and the session closed at 29291.25, back inside the range it had been outside on both sides.

First sweep correct at 88% and both marginals taken, the 90% high and the 46% low. The branch was both sides at 38% against a 52% high-only favourite. Three draws of this bin have produced one high only and two both sides, against a table that says 52 and 38, and its 2% inside branch has not appeared.

• London range196 pt, above average
• Prior sweepSwept low
• Open vs London EQAbove EQ
• Four-way52 / 8 / 38 / 2
• First sweep▲ 88% · ▼ 12%
• P(high taken)90% → taken 08:00
• P(low taken)46% → taken 10:50
• Session high29484.25, 56.75 pt through
• Session low29215.75, 15.50 pt through
• Samplen 766, High

Wednesday 16 September

Through the high at 08:00, back inside by 08:45, and the session high on the 11:05 bar

First sweep ✓ · high only, against a 41% both-sides favourite

The fifth draw of 34 / 25 / 41 / 0 from 528 sessions. London had run 94 points, the narrowest prior session of the week, and price opened at 29379.50, 39.50 points under the London high and 54.00 above the low, just above EQ. First sweep 58% to the high.

The high went at 08:00, but only barely at first: price reached 29439.00 by 08:05, twenty points through, then fell back inside the London range to a session low of 29364.00 on the 08:45 bar, which is 38.50 points above the London low. That is as close as the 41% both-sides branch came. Price then climbed for the rest of the morning to 29536.25 on the 11:05 bar, 117.25 points through the high against a median of 76, and closed at 29506.75.

First sweep correct at 58%, the 75% high taken and the 66% low not. The branch was high only at 34% against a both-sides favourite of 41%, and it is the first high only this bin has produced in five draws: the other four went both sides three times and low only once. Its 0% inside branch has still not appeared.

• London range94 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs London EQAbove EQ
• Four-way34 / 25 / 41 / 0
• First sweep▲ 58% · ▼ 42%
• P(high taken)75% → taken 08:00
• P(low taken)66% → not taken, by 38.50 pt
• Session high29536.25, 117.25 pt through
• Session low29364.00, 38.50 pt short
• Samplen 528, High

Thursday 17 September

The high in the sixth bar, 140.25 points through it, then back inside by 09:35

First sweep ✓ · high only, the 53% favourite ✓

The third draw of 53 / 20 / 24 / 3 from 479 sessions, the table that drew on each of the last two Fridays. Price opened at 29577.50, 35.50 points under the London high and 136.75 above the low, with 74% on the high going first.

The session low came first in time, 29555.00 on the 07:50 bar, and it was still 114.25 points above the London low, so nothing was latched by it. The high went at 07:55, in the sixth bar, and price ran to 29753.25 on the 08:30 bar, 140.25 points through the level against a median up penetration of 79. It then handed 147.50 of that back by 09:35, to 29605.75, which is 7.25 points back inside the London range, before recovering to close at 29706.50.

First sweep correct at 74%, high only at 53% landed, the 77% high taken and the 44% low not. This is the bin's first high only in three draws; the two before it, on 4 and 11 September, both went both sides. On both of those the table's 53% favourite was the miss, and this time it was the hit, on the same four numbers.

• London range172 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs London EQAbove EQ
• Four-way53 / 20 / 24 / 3
• First sweep▲ 74% · ▼ 26%
• P(high taken)77% → taken 07:55
• P(low taken)44% → not taken, by 114.25 pt
• Session high29753.25, 140.25 pt through
• Session low29555.00, 114.25 pt short
• Samplen 479, High

Friday 18 September

The week's only open below London EQ, and the low went in the fourth bar

First sweep ✓ · low only, the 52% favourite ✓

The seventh draw of 10 / 52 / 38 / 0 from 840 sessions, the largest bin in the record, and the only session of the week to open below London EQ. Price opened at 29830.25, 6.50 points above the London low and 137.00 under the high, with 85% on the low going first.

The session high printed almost immediately, 29859.00 on the 07:35 bar and 108.25 points under the London high, and that was the whole of the upside. The low went at 07:45, in the fourth bar, and price carried to 29694.00 by 10:15, 129.75 points through it against a median down penetration of 88. The recovery reached 29771.50 by 11:05 and the session closed at 29749.50, still below the London low.

First sweep correct at 85%, low only at 52% landed, the 90% low taken and the 48% high not. Seven draws of this bin have now produced five low onlys, one both sides and one inside, against a stated 52 / 38 / 0, and the 10% high-only branch has not appeared in any of them. Seven draws cannot tell you whether 10 is the right number for it.

• London range144 pt, below average
• Prior sweepSwept high
• Open vs London EQBelow EQ
• Four-way10 / 52 / 38 / 0
• First sweep▲ 15% · ▼ 85%
• P(high taken)48% → not taken, by 108.25 pt
• P(low taken)90% → taken 07:45
• Session high29859.00, 108.25 pt short
• Session low29694.00, 129.75 pt through
• Samplen 840, High

The same forecast, more than once

Across the thirty-five sessions published so far, eight context bins have each come up more than once, and thirty-four of the thirty-five sessions sit in one of them. The only session still on its own is Monday 10 August. Same context bin, same lookup, same numbers to the percentage point, on days weeks apart with different London ranges and different price levels. Every one of this week's five forecasts was a repeat, as every one of last week's was.

Two things follow, and they matter more than this week's score.

The forecast is a lookup, not a fit. Nothing about Thursday was used to produce Thursday's numbers. They are the numbers Friday 4 September and Friday 11 September got, because all three sessions landed in the same measured bin, on London ranges of 125, 125 and 172 points at price levels three hundred points apart. Two of the three went both sides and the third went high only.

Identical forecasts resolving differently is the system working, not failing. Every one of the eight repeated bins has now produced more than one outcome. The largest, 10 / 52 / 38 / 0 from 840 sessions, has drawn seven times: five low onlys, one both sides and one inside, against a stated 52 / 38 / 0, and its 10% high-only branch has appeared in none of them. Two bins produced an outcome this week they had not produced before, Wednesday's first high only in five draws and Thursday's first in three. Seven draws cannot tell you whether 52 is the right number, and neither can thirty-five sessions; what they can show is whether the table keeps returning the same answer for the same context bin, which it does.

What this week actually shows

Five things, from a week that scored well on its narrowest claim and poorly on its broadest.

1. Five first sweeps from five, and the record moves to twenty-six from thirty-five. The mean stated confidence across the five calls was 72%, ranging from Monday's 53% to Tuesday's 88%. One clean week is one clean week: the seven published weeks now read four, three, three, two, five, four and five from five.
2. Monday scored on both claims and came within 10.50 points of scoring on neither. Price fell 146.00 points from the open before it did anything else and stopped ten and a half points above the London low, then turned and took the high at 09:45. The scoreline cannot express that, which is why the session pages exist.
3. The high was taken on four of the five days, the low on two. Three sessions finished high only, one both sides and one low only. Of the four levels not taken, one was a 66% low on Wednesday and one a 53% low on Monday; the two lows that did go were rated 46% and 90%. The per-side view is the one with the most events behind it and the least drama in it.
4. Six of ten levels taken, against a mean stated 64%. A realised 60%, which is the joint lowest of the seven weeks with last week. Across the record forty-nine of seventy levels have been taken against a mean stated 67%, a realised 70%. That gap is the thing to keep watching, and seventy level events cannot close it in either direction.
5. Thirty-five sessions settle nothing, and the indicator's own row is still behind. The realised versus expected row on the status table read 51 to 52% against 56% expected across the week, on 262 to 277 setups loaded, which is behind for the seventh week running. The record has a shape, not a verdict.